Risk and the Black Swan Theory

In several columns, I have written about the Black Swan theory.    In ancient literature, a black swan was a proverbial phrase for something extremely rare or nonexistent.  How to assess risk is a key problem along the Gulf when it comes to figure the odds of oil spills and hurricanes. Professor Nassim Taleb has a New York Times best seller entitled “The Black Swan:  The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” We could use him on the Gulf Coast to educate our public officials about too little planning for disasters and assuming too much risk.  We talked about this in Washington last week.  (To see my column on the Black Swan and the gulf oil spill, Click Here.)